Need A BirdieAIneedabirdie.com
Friday, July 31, 2026Daily editionEst. 2026
The card
#1 Zac Blair over Michael Kim +108 Unibet#2 Russell Henley over Ben Griffin -105 bet365#3 Jordan Spieth over Corey Conners +105 Pinnacle#4 Zac Blair over Lucas Glover -109 Betcris#5 Billy Horschel over Max Greyserman +115 BetOnlineCard No. 1 Rocket Classic sealed 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29

Card No. 1 · Season 2026 · Revision 5 of the week

Rocket Classic

Detroit Golf Club · Detroit, Michigan · Par 72

In play · gun went 6:00 AM ET, Jul 30
Plays on the card105 weekly · 5 on round 2
Best disagreement today+8.9%Harry Hall over Sam Stevens · R2
Thursday0-2-1−1.00u · CLV posts with the archive
Season0-2-1−1.00u · CLV posts as closes land
The record

Everything on this page is a real, sealed entry on the append-only ledger, written before its gun and never edited after. The weekly card sealed 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29; Friday's Daily Card for round 2 sealed 11:15 PM ET, Jul 30, its plays legal until the round's gun at 6:00 AM ET, Jul 31 and ordered by the disconnect, biggest first. Every number below is exactly what the database holds.

The Daily Card · Round 2 · Rev 1

Sealed 11:15 PM ET, Jul 30
PlayOurs vs theirsPriceEdgeBookTierStake
Harry Hall over Sam Stevens#1Round 2 matchup
53.1%vs44.2%
+114
+8.9%
Betcris0.5u
tier C
Live · R2Hall -1 thru 8·Stevens +1 thru 7up 2checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

The readHarry Hall rates 0.3 strokes a round better on two full seasons of scoring from both, built mostly on putting (+0.4 a round) with short game adding +0.2. betcris is the lone book on this market, paying +114 against a devigged 44.2%. Our simulation puts him at 53.1% to win the matchup. Net of our doubt, this prices out at -2.57% per unit: tier C, 0.5 units. With one book hanging a number there is no consensus to check our work against, and the stake stays at the floor because of it.

Jesper Svensson over Johnny Keefer#2Round 2 matchup
48.2%vs42.3%
+126
+5.9%
BetOnline0.5u
tier C
Live · R2Svensson -2 thru 6·Keefer E thru 6up 2checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

The readJohnny Keefer rates 0.2 better on paper, but the price pays more than that gap is worth. One book, betonline, hangs a number here: +126 against a devigged 42.3%. Our number on the matchup is 48.2% his side. Once our doubt comes off, the number lands at -2.37% per unit: tier C, 0.5 units. No second book prices this, so there is no market argument to test ours against, and the stake stays at the floor.

Davis Riley over Akshay Bhatia#3Round 2 matchup
36.7%vs33.4%
+188
+3.3%
FanDuel0.5u
tier C
Live · R2Riley -4 thru 11·Bhatia +2 thru 10up 6checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

Offshore onlythe edge does not survive the majors' prices; it is only live at FanDuel +188

The readAkshay Bhatia rates 1.3 better on paper, but the price pays more than that gap is worth. Only fanduel prices this market, at +188 against a devigged 33.4%. Simulated, we make his side of the matchup 36.7%. Our doubt takes its cut and leaves -2.40% per unit, a tier C play at 0.5 units. One price is an opinion, not a market, so the edge gets the smallest stake we write.

Chris Gotterup over Xander Schauffele#4Round 2 matchup
53.1%vs50.0%
+100
+3.1%
bet3650.5u
tier C
Live · R2Gotterup +2 thru 11·Schauffele -3 thru 11down 5checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

The readChris Gotterup rates 0.3 strokes a round better on two full seasons of scoring from both. Across the 5 books carrying this market, the margin-free consensus makes him 50.0%, fairly worth -100; bet365's +100 is the best price out there. Run head to head in our simulation, he comes out at 53.1%. Charged for our doubt, the play nets -2.05% per unit, tier C at 0.5 units. The 5 books can't agree with each other here (3.0 points of spread), so we keep the stake down.

Si Woo Kim over Akshay Bhatia#5Round 2 matchup
55.6%vs55.7%
-116
−0.1%
bet3650.5u
tier C
Live · R2Kim -2 thru 10·Bhatia +2 thru 10up 4checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

The readSi Woo Kim rates 0.5 strokes a round better on two full seasons of scoring from both, built mostly on off the tee (+0.3 a round) with approach play adding +0.2. 4 books price this market; their consensus, with each book's margin removed, makes him 55.7% (a fair price of -126), and bet365 pays -116, the best price on the board. Our simulation of the two games makes him 55.6%. After subtracting our doubt (the market disagrees with itself by 5.4 points here), this nets -1.31% per unit: a tier C play at 0.5 units. On a board this quiet that is the best relative value we found, not an edge that beats the hold outright.

72 holes

Riding the whole week

2 plays scored across all four rounds · settled at the last putt Sunday

Russell Henley over Ben GriffinTournament matchup, 72 holes

54.2%vs50.6%+3.6%

bet365 -105offshore only0.5u · tier C

Henley -6 F · Griffin -2 Fup 4checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

Zac Blair over Lucas GloverTournament matchup, 72 holes

62.7%vs51.0%+11.7%

Betcris -109offshore only0.5u · tier C

Blair -5 thru 13 · Glover +5 thru 11up 10checked 3:53 PM ET, Jul 31

The Board · Card No. 1

Sealed 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29
PlayOurs vs theirsPriceEdgeBookTierStake
Every round play on this card has settled. The plays still standing ride the full 72 holes on the ribbon above, and the grades live below.

3 of this card's 5 plays have settled; the latest are graded below; 2 plays ride the full 72 holes on the ribbon above; every sealed row stays on the ledger.

Thursday's Card · Round 1 · graded

settled on the final scores, 6:00 AM ET, Jul 30 gun
PlayOurs vs theirsResultGradeCLVUnits
Zac Blair over Michael KimBoard #1Round 1 matchup
53.3%vs48.8%
Blair 69 · Kim 65
Lost
posts at the close
−0.50u0.5u staked

The read, sealed pre-gunZac Blair rates 0.3 strokes a round better on two full seasons of scoring from both, most of it approach play (+0.2 a round there). 3 books price this market; their consensus, with each book's margin removed, makes him 48.8% (a fair price of +105), and unibet pays +108, the best price on the board. Our simulation of the two games makes him 53.3%. After subtracting our doubt (the market disagrees with itself by 3.4 points here), this nets -0.63% per unit, so it is a tier C play at 0.5 units: the best relative value on a quiet board, not an edge that beats the hold outright.

The verdictWe priced Blair at 53% where the market said 49%. The other side shot 65 against a field averaging 69.2, and a round that good beats our man at almost any price. That is the 47% landing, not a hole in the number.

Jordan Spieth over Corey ConnersBoard #3Round 1 matchup
46.4%vs50.0%
Spieth 68 · Conners 67
Lost
posts at the close
−0.50u0.5u staked

The read, sealed pre-gunCorey Conners rates 0.3 better on paper, but the price pays more than that gap is worth. 3 books price this market; their consensus, with each book's margin removed, makes him 50.0% (a fair price of -100), and pinnacle pays +105, the best price on the board. Our simulation of the two games makes him 46.4%. After subtracting our doubt (the market disagrees with itself by 3.2 points here), this nets -1.84% per unit, so it is a tier C play at 0.5 units: the best relative value on a quiet board, not an edge that beats the hold outright.

The verdictWe priced Spieth at 46% where the market said 50%. The other side shot 67 against a field averaging 69.2, and a round that good beats our man at almost any price. That is the 54% landing, not a hole in the number.

Billy Horschel over Max GreysermanBoard #5Round 1 matchup
50.0%vs44.5%
Horschel 68 · Greyserman 68
Push
posts at the close
+0.00u0.5u staked

The read, sealed pre-gunour numbers make this closer to a coin flip than the price says (two full seasons of scoring from both); Billy Horschel holds the approach play edge (+0.6 a round). Only betonline prices this market, at +115 against a devigged 44.5%. Our simulation of the two games makes him 50.0%. After subtracting our doubt, this nets -2.54% per unit, so it is a tier C play at 0.5 units: the best relative value on a quiet board, not an edge that beats the hold outright.

The verdictWe priced Horschel at 50% where the market said 45%. The round tied, so the stake comes back. A push settles nothing and claims nothing.

What the machine takes from it

0 won · 2 lost · 1 returned · −1.00u

The card went 0 and 2 with 1 returned, down 1 unit at the sealed prices.

Our numbers expected 1.0 wins where the market's expected 1.0; the day delivered 0.

Scored strictly as forecasts against the results, the market's numbers were sharper than ours on the day. Days like this are tuition, and they go in the ledger too.

Nothing recalibrates off 3 results. Every miss goes into the season sample, and the reliability curve, not one day, decides whether the number is right.

The Featured Group

Round 2 · sealed 11:15 PM ET, Jul 30
afternoonFor the watch, not for the betoff 12:43 PM local, Friday Jul 31
Keegan Bradley25.7%vs30.0%+230 · FanDuel
Wyndham Clark36.7%vs34.9%+175 · bet365
Jackson Koivunour favorite37.6%vs36.2%+166 · DraftKings

The watchThe group to watch in round 2: Keegan Bradley, Wyndham Clark and Jackson Koivun, off at 12:43 PM local, Friday Jul 31. Our simulation of the three games, dead heats split, makes Jackson Koivun the man to beat at 37.6%, with Keegan Bradley at 25.7% and Wyndham Clark at 36.7%. The consensus of 9 books, margin removed, makes Jackson Koivun 36.2%. Shown for the watch, not for the bet: the best of these games nets -6.39% per unit after our doubt and ranks 187 of 344 priced sides this week, which is not close to the card. The books have the stars priced tightest, and that is exactly where they should be.

How to read it

Ours vs theirs our probability vs the devigged marketEdge the raw disagreement between themTier A/B/C staked plays, sized by the edge left after doubtNo Play under our floor after doubt: watched and graded, never stakedBook the best major US book still clearing our barOffshore only the edge lives at no major book, and we say soThe read the argument, written before the gunThe verdict the machine on its own result, written afterblend survivors only · devigged, never naive

Revisions

Rev 1 9:08 PM ET, Jul 29Rev 2 9:51 PM ET, Jul 29Rev 3 9:56 PM ET, Jul 29Rev 4 10:04 PM ET, Jul 29Rev 5 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29, the carda better board is new rows; the old rows stand