Need A Birdie

The Ledger · Season 2026 · append-only · every row sealed before the gun

Append-only · no edits, ever

The permanent receipt

A row is written before the event with the price taken, the book, the stake and both probabilities at that moment. A correction is a new row, never an edit, so our mistakes stay on the page next to their fixes. Nothing published ever leaves this page.

Rows sealed
345
the whole log, drafts and all
Wagers
29
rows that carried money
Graded
29
settled on final scores
Standing
0
sealed, not yet graded
No Plays
28
published, never staked
Corrections
10
appended, never edited · 288 superseded drafts kept

Row by row, newest card first

Every row of every card that stood, the No Plays included. A No Play is graded for calibration but was never a wager.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju over Sungjae ImEvent 27 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup5:45 AM ET, Aug 13+135BetMGM51.6%41.5%0u−1.0 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-D39B2F8A
Sealed
5:45 AM ET, Aug 13 · revision 5, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 51.6% · market 41.5% · edge +10.1 pts
Close
drift −1.0 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+135 at BetMGM
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Tommy Fleetwood over Cameron YoungEvent 27 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes5:45 AM ET, Aug 13-105BetMGM56.7%53.5%0u−4.9 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-E7141E44
Sealed
5:45 AM ET, Aug 13 · revision 5, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 56.7% · market 53.5% · edge +3.3 pts
Close
drift −4.9 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
-105 at BetMGM
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Tommy Fleetwood over Xander SchauffeleEvent 27 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes5:45 AM ET, Aug 13+100FanDuel58.7%49.0%0u−1.2 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-B98ECF1B
Sealed
5:45 AM ET, Aug 13 · revision 5, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 58.7% · market 49.0% · edge +9.7 pts
Close
drift −1.2 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+100 at FanDuel
Grade
graded void, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Eric Cole over Alex NorenEvent 27 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup5:45 AM ET, Aug 13+105BetMGM52.1%48.2%0u−2.2 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-BD434146
Sealed
5:45 AM ET, Aug 13 · revision 5, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 52.1% · market 48.2% · edge +3.9 pts
Close
drift −2.2 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+105 at BetMGM
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Pierceson Coody over Sam StevensEvent 27 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup5:45 AM ET, Aug 13+105Caesars54.6%47.2%0u−1.2 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-204074F0
Sealed
5:45 AM ET, Aug 13 · revision 5, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 54.6% · market 47.2% · edge +7.4 pts
Close
drift −1.2 pts away from our side
Retail shelf
+105 at Caesars
Grade
graded lost, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Rows only ever get added, so this page can only get longer. The log holds 345 sealed rows; 29 carried money.
What each state meanspush, dead heat, void, correction, No Play and pass, defined once
Standing
sealed before the gun; the market has not graded it yet.
Won / Lost
settled on the final scores, exactly as the market settles.
Dead heat
a tie under the market’s rules; the settlement splits accordingly.
Push
the market returned the stake; no units move.
Void
the market voided the play, a withdrawal being the usual reason; the stake returns.
No Play
published and graded for calibration, never staked; it carries no money and never joins the record.
Pass
a side we priced and declined to publish. A pass counts in our own accounting; the nearest misses appear on the watch list, never here as wagers.
Correction
a fact restated after the seal, as a new appended row naming its author, its time and its reason. The original stands forever.
Superseded
a pre-gun draft replaced by a later revision. It stays on the log next to its replacement.

Tournament and season results live in the track record; this is the receipt behind them, row by row, forever.