Need A Birdie

The Ledger · Season 2026 · append-only · every row sealed before the gun

Append-only · no edits, ever

The permanent receipt

A row is written before the event with the price taken, the book, the stake and both probabilities at that moment. A correction is a new row, never an edit, so our mistakes stay on the page next to their fixes. Nothing published ever leaves this page.

Rows sealed
661
the whole log, drafts and all
Wagers
31
rows that carried money
Graded
31
settled on final scores
Standing
0
sealed, not yet graded
No Plays
48
published, never staked
Corrections
10
appended, never edited · 582 superseded drafts kept

Row by row, newest card first

The whole append-only ledger, superseded revisions and all. A card we replaced before the gun stays here forever, next to its replacement.

Emiliano Grillo over Justin LowerEvent 528 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes8:45 PM ET, Oct 21-125FanDuel66.0%53.0%0u··No Play
Pick ID
NAB-6B410129
Sealed
8:45 PM ET, Oct 21 · revision 14, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 66.0% · market 53.0% · edge +13.0 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
-125 at FanDuel
Grade
graded won, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

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Seamus Power over Chris KirkEvent 528 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup8:45 PM ET, Oct 21+100FanDuel53.5%48.3%0u+0.8 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-69187A95
Sealed
8:45 PM ET, Oct 21 · revision 14, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 53.5% · market 48.3% · edge +5.2 pts
Close
drift +0.8 pts toward our side
Retail shelf
+100 at FanDuel
Grade
graded void, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

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Max Greyserman over Trace CroweEvent 528 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup8:45 PM ET, Oct 21+100FanDuel53.1%50.0%0u+0.0 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-7D420842
Sealed
8:45 PM ET, Oct 21 · revision 14, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 53.1% · market 50.0% · edge +3.1 pts
Close
drift +0.0 pts toward our side
Retail shelf
+100 at FanDuel
Grade
graded void, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

A.J. Ewart over Andrew NovakEvent 528 · Weekly Board · Round 1 matchup8:45 PM ET, Oct 21+110FanDuel55.2%45.1%0u+0.0 pts·No Play
Pick ID
NAB-87D48C33
Sealed
8:45 PM ET, Oct 21 · revision 14, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 55.2% · market 45.1% · edge +10.1 pts
Close
drift +0.0 pts toward our side
Retail shelf
+110 at FanDuel
Grade
graded void, unstaked; it counts toward calibration, never the record.

The full instrument and verification view →

Seamus Power over Andrew NovakEvent 528 · Weekly Board · Tournament matchup, 72 holes8:45 PM ET, Oct 21+105BetMGM58.6%46.3%0u··No Play
Pick ID
NAB-E92D6265
Sealed
8:45 PM ET, Oct 21 · revision 14, the card that stood
Sealed numbers
ours 58.6% · market 46.3% · edge +12.3 pts
Close
pending; drift posts when the market closes
Retail shelf
+105 at BetMGM

The full instrument and verification view →

Rows only ever get added, so this page can only get longer. The log holds 661 sealed rows; 31 carried money.
What each state meanspush, dead heat, void, correction, No Play and pass, defined once
Standing
sealed before the gun; the market has not graded it yet.
Won / Lost
settled on the final scores, exactly as the market settles.
Dead heat
a tie under the market’s rules; the settlement splits accordingly.
Push
the market returned the stake; no units move.
Void
the market voided the play, a withdrawal being the usual reason; the stake returns.
No Play
published and graded for calibration, never staked; it carries no money and never joins the record.
Pass
a side we priced and declined to publish. A pass counts in our own accounting; the nearest misses appear on the watch list, never here as wagers.
Correction
a fact restated after the seal, as a new appended row naming its author, its time and its reason. The original stands forever.
Superseded
a pre-gun draft replaced by a later revision. It stays on the log next to its replacement.

Tournament and season results live in the track record; this is the receipt behind them, row by row, forever.