Matt Fitzpatrick over Scottie Scheffler

Round 1 matchup · Event 60

+180 · Caesars

Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Aug 26

Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability41.3%

Market probability35.2%

Difference+6.1 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	41.3%
Market probability	35.2%
Difference	+6.1 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +6.1 pts: our 41.3% against the market’s 35.2% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.1% expected value a unit at +180
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 8, rank 2 of 244 priced sides this week; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 8 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 3608d66c-d156-4e60-908b-0ff484b6ccf3; draw b172f699-96d2-45f2-986c-7d46e65a5b00

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 64.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +180 is 35.7%; our cushion past it is +5.6 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.