Eric Cole over Alex Noren

Round 1 matchup · Event 27

+105 · BetMGM

Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 12

Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability52.1%

Market probability48.2%

Difference+3.9 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	52.1%
Market probability	48.2%
Difference	+3.9 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +3.9 pts: our 52.1% against the market’s 48.2% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.1% expected value a unit at +105
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 4, rank 3 of 646 priced sides this week; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast bd99deb1-ea00-4103-8f17-a9a7e2dee353; draw c3268f6b-ea7e-4b63-878c-0eec3a464b25

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 51.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +105 is 48.8%; our cushion past it is +3.3 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.