Collin Morikawa over Sam Burns
Round 1 matchup · Event 60
-102 · DraftKings
Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 24
Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability49.8%
Market probability51.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−1.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 49.8% |
| Market probability | 51.0% |
| Difference | −1.2 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −1.2 pts: our 49.8% against the market’s 51.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.6% expected value a unit at -102
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 2, rank 3 of 194 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 7bb19ba1-fe1d-4d76-b66d-85526c255ace; draw 0bd81b83-b65e-4605-90f5-8387b59c8320
- The market holds the other side at 49.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -102 is 50.5%; our cushion past it is −0.7 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
