Neal Shipley in a 3-ball
Round 1 3-ball v Haotong Li, Chandler Blanchet · Wyndham Championship
+190 · FanDuel
Sealed · 10:45 AM ET, Aug 5
Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability35.5%
Market probability34.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+1.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 35.5% |
| Market probability | 34.0% |
| Difference | +1.5 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +1.5 pts: our 35.5% against the market’s 34.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.6% expected value a unit at +190
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 11, rank 5 of 1329 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 6 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast f6f71605-30da-4231-b370-50dfe7ed1543; draw 4945fcc4-4067-4173-8afd-b9050024f619
- The market holds the other side at 66.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +190 is 34.5%; our cushion past it is +1.0 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account