Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability56.8%
Market probability46.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+10.1 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
56.8%
Market probability
46.8%
Difference
+10.1 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +10.1 pts: our 56.8% against the market’s 46.8% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.1% expected value a unit at +105
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 1 of 194 round-scoped sides; price is best of 1 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
