Round 1 3-ball v Keith Mitchell, Michael Kim · Event 527
+200 · FanDuel
Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Oct 6
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability36.3%
Market probability32.7%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+3.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
36.3%
Market probability
32.7%
Difference
+3.6 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +3.6 pts: our 36.3% against the market’s 32.7% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.3% expected value a unit at +200
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 6, rank 4 of 728 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 9 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
