Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability10.2%
Market probability8.1%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.1 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 10.2% |
| Market probability | 8.1% |
| Difference | +2.1 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.1 pts: our 10.2% against the market’s 8.1% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -18.8% expected value a unit at +1000
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 1, rank 5 of 147 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 4 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast f6f9629c-c73c-4246-95fd-2343d691d65b; draw 37accb81-55bb-4506-aac0-ce915bbbbcab
- The market holds the other side at 91.9%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +1000 is 9.1%; our cushion past it is +1.2 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
