No Playpublished for calibration; the blended edge did not clear the staking threshold · see it on the Ledger
Our probability59.6%
Market probability51.5%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+8.1 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
59.6%
Market probability
51.5%
Difference
+8.1 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +8.1 pts: our 59.6% against the market’s 51.5% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -5.1% expected value a unit at -120
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 4, rank 5 of 714 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 2 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
