Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability52.3%
Market probability42.5%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+9.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
52.3%
Market probability
42.5%
Difference
+9.7 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +9.7 pts: our 52.3% against the market’s 42.5% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -0.9% expected value a unit at +130
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 2 of 194 round-scoped sides; price is best of 2 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
