Billy Horschel over Max Greyserman
Round 1 matchup · Rocket Classic
+115 · BetOnline · 1u
Sealed · 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29
Staked playDead heat · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability50.0%
Market probability44.5%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+5.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 50.0% |
| Market probability | 44.5% |
| Difference | +5.5 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +5.5 pts: our 50.0% against the market’s 44.5% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.5% expected value a unit at +115
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
revision 5, rank 5 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 1 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 85e895f2-2ef4-4d16-a46f-e8ff3473131a; draw dd7c9e8d-4228-4fb4-ab19-b8198a3479ed
- The market holds the other side at 55.5%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +115 is 46.5%; our cushion past it is +3.5 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account