Ben Kohles over Gordon Sargent

• The raw disagreement is +8.9 pts: our 64.9% against the market’s 56.0% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.2% expected value a unit at -125
• It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

daily card r4 revision 1, rank 1 of 68 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 44.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at -125 is 55.6%; our cushion past it is +9.3 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.