Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability53.3%
Market probability48.8%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+4.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
53.3%
Market probability
48.8%
Difference
+4.5 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +4.5 pts: our 53.3% against the market’s 48.8% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -0.6% expected value a unit at +108
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
The golf case
revision 3, rank 1 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
