Kristoffer Reitan over Patrick Cantlay

Round 1 matchup · Event 60

+145 · BetMGM

Sealed · 9:45 AM ET, Aug 26

Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability48.3%

Market probability39.6%

Difference+8.7 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	48.3%
Market probability	39.6%
Difference	+8.7 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +8.7 pts: our 48.3% against the market’s 39.6% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -0.8% expected value a unit at +145
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 9, rank 1 of 272 priced sides this week; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast ce4860fa-bb24-4d22-8ef4-ba005b35c428; draw b172f699-96d2-45f2-986c-7d46e65a5b00

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 60.4%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +145 is 40.8%; our cushion past it is +7.5 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.