Thorbjorn Olesen over Tony Finau
Round 3 matchup · Rocket Classic
+121 · BetOnline
Sealed · 7:37 AM ET, Aug 1
Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability50.4%
Market probability47.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 50.4% |
| Market probability | 47.8% |
| Difference | +2.6 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.6 pts: our 50.4% against the market’s 47.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 1.6% expected value a unit at +121
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 4 of 194 round-scoped sides; price is best of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 707fc993-a159-49f7-8adc-c98edfdf0b0d; draw fd6fd3e0-c6ff-4eae-9dad-dee4e72e1f52
- The market holds the other side at 52.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +121 is 45.2%; our cushion past it is +5.2 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
