Mac Meissner over Maverick McNealy
Round 1 matchup · Wyndham Championship
-110 · DraftKings
Sealed · 8:15 PM ET, Aug 4
Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability53.8%
Market probability50.9%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 53.8% |
| Market probability | 50.9% |
| Difference | +2.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.9 pts: our 53.8% against the market’s 50.9% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.6% expected value a unit at -110
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 8, rank 4 of 1253 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 2 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 4753d5be-71eb-43ba-834f-cb2cda0d9686; draw 17f86408-a778-458c-8549-01de2f50b455
- The market holds the other side at 49.1%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -110 is 52.4%; our cushion past it is +1.4 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account