Lee Hodges over Ryo Hisatsune

• The raw disagreement is +4.2 pts: our 52.0% against the market’s 47.8% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.1% expected value a unit at +100
• It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

rank 3 of 784 priced sides this week

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 52.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at +100 is 50.0%; our cushion past it is +2.0 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.