Matti Schmid over Michael Brennan
Round 4 matchup · Event 27
+150 · FanDuel · 1.5u
Sealed · 10:45 PM ET, Aug 15
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability46.5%
Market probability41.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+5.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 46.5% |
| Market probability | 41.0% |
| Difference | +5.5 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +5.5 pts: our 46.5% against the market’s 41.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.8% expected value a unit at +150
- It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r4 revision 1, rank 1 of 88 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 42db2b3f-7e9a-4350-8f24-da77d881d233; draw 64eb852b-3a54-4ce5-99c6-253f4ec06534
- The market holds the other side at 59.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +150 is 40.0%; our cushion past it is +6.5 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account