Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability46.9%
Market probability42.3%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+4.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
46.9%
Market probability
42.3%
Difference
+4.5 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +4.5 pts: our 46.9% against the market’s 42.3% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.1% expected value a unit at +135
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 16, rank 3 of 564 priced sides this week; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 8 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
