Matt Fitzpatrick over Scottie Scheffler

• The raw disagreement is +8.0 pts: our 43.0% against the market’s 35.0% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.0% expected value a unit at +180
• It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

revision 18, rank 2 of 564 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 65.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at +180 is 35.7%; our cushion past it is +7.3 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.