Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability43.7%
Market probability38.5%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+5.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
43.7%
Market probability
38.5%
Difference
+5.2 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +5.2 pts: our 43.7% against the market’s 38.5% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.5% expected value a unit at +150
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 7, rank 4 of 454 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 2 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
