Ryan Fox over Tom Kim
Round 1 matchup · Event 28
+126 · DraftKings
Sealed · 6:45 PM ET, Aug 18
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability46.8%
Market probability44.5%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+2.3 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 46.8% |
| Market probability | 44.5% |
| Difference | +2.3 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.3 pts: our 46.8% against the market’s 44.5% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.7% expected value a unit at +126
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 8, rank 3 of 532 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 4 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 2ca405b7-1292-490b-a9df-e5ccd926c6a3; draw a4ad5b59-70dc-48f6-8232-f4bb13b6a8ac
- The market holds the other side at 55.5%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +126 is 44.2%; our cushion past it is +2.6 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
