J.J. Spaun over Min Woo Lee
Round 1 matchup · Event 60
-112 · DraftKings
Sealed · 8:45 PM ET, Aug 24
Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability53.5%
Market probability52.6%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+0.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 53.5% |
| Market probability | 52.6% |
| Difference | +0.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +0.9 pts: our 53.5% against the market’s 52.6% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.6% expected value a unit at -112
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 2, rank 4 of 194 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 7bb19ba1-fe1d-4d76-b66d-85526c255ace; draw 0bd81b83-b65e-4605-90f5-8387b59c8320
- The market holds the other side at 47.4%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -112 is 52.8%; our cushion past it is +0.7 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
