Maverick McNealy over Alex Fitzpatrick
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Wyndham Championship
+110 · FanDuel
Sealed · 5:46 AM ET, Aug 6
No PlayWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability50.8%
Market probability48.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.8 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 50.8% |
| Market probability | 48.0% |
| Difference | +2.8 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.8 pts: our 50.8% against the market’s 48.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.9% expected value a unit at +110
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 15, rank 3 of 1368 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 4 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast fb8f56e9-5ef1-45cd-be2d-a8c30c43b3b7; draw ad8e4df2-a7de-4007-8cb6-567d487b09c6
- The market holds the other side at 52.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +110 is 47.6%; our cushion past it is +3.2 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
