Greyserman, Max top-5
Sealed play · Rocket Classic
+2150 · Betcris
Sealed · 9:51 PM ET, Jul 29
Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability3.7%
Market probability5.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−1.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 3.7% |
| Market probability | 5.0% |
| Difference | −1.2 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −1.2 pts: our 3.7% against the market’s 5.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 5.2% expected value a unit at +2150
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A number we sized up on.
revision 2, rank 3 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 13 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 85e895f2-2ef4-4d16-a46f-e8ff3473131a; draw dd7c9e8d-4228-4fb4-ab19-b8198a3479ed
- The market holds the other side at 95.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +2150 is 4.4%; our cushion past it is −0.7 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
