Collin Morikawa over Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 527
-111 · FanDuel
Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Oct 7
Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability54.8%
Market probability52.2%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+2.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 54.8% |
| Market probability | 52.2% |
| Difference | +2.6 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.6 pts: our 54.8% against the market’s 52.2% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.5% expected value a unit at -111
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 7, rank 4 of 754 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 6 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 9fe59e52-1413-42e8-8856-c7a905560eeb; draw acfb825d-3d7a-4a6d-8935-fc7481f8a715
- The market holds the other side at 47.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at -111 is 52.6%; our cushion past it is +2.2 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
