Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability41.5%
Market probability37.6%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+3.8 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
41.5%
Market probability
37.6%
Difference
+3.8 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +3.8 pts: our 41.5% against the market’s 37.6% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -0.7% expected value a unit at +170
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 3 of 194 round-scoped sides; price is best of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
