Chris Gotterup over Xander Schauffele
Round 2 matchup · Rocket Classic
+100 · bet365 · 1u
Sealed · 11:15 PM ET, Jul 30
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability53.1%
Market probability50.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+3.1 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 53.1% |
| Market probability | 50.0% |
| Difference | +3.1 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +3.1 pts: our 53.1% against the market’s 50.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.0% expected value a unit at +100
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r2 revision 1, rank 2 of 344 round-scoped sides; price is best of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast f7ef5098-0f3f-40c3-a0ee-ae84a4ca0502; draw faaa2a44-b153-49b6-924d-96ab3c2e1bc5
- The market holds the other side at 50.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +100 is 50.0%; our cushion past it is +3.1 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account