Nicolai Hojgaard over J.J. Spaun
Round 4 matchup · Rocket Classic
+117 · BetOnline · 1.5u
Sealed · 7:45 PM ET, Aug 1
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability60.1%
Market probability44.3%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+15.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 60.1% |
| Market probability | 44.3% |
| Difference | +15.7 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +15.7 pts: our 60.1% against the market’s 44.3% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.9% expected value a unit at +117
- It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r4 revision 1, rank 1 of 223 round-scoped sides; sealed at betonline, the best major book (retail gate 2026-08-01); consensus of 2 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 6340bc27-e34e-4461-a3a2-bf9811e68d48; draw bfa4092c-da69-42f3-b3ce-42d309328464
- The market holds the other side at 55.7%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +117 is 46.1%; our cushion past it is +14.0 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account