Alex Smalley over Xander Schauffele
Round 2 matchup · Event 60
+165 · Caesars · 1u
Sealed · 11:03 PM ET, Aug 27
Staked playWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability46.6%
Market probability36.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+9.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 46.6% |
| Market probability | 36.8% |
| Difference | +9.7 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +9.7 pts: our 46.6% against the market’s 36.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.1% expected value a unit at +165
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r2 revision 1, rank 1 of 68 round-scoped sides; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 753fec5a-b80a-491e-8697-764e285e7686; draw 6970b9d9-4791-4ad7-8d03-7849d84187c0
- The market holds the other side at 63.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +165 is 37.7%; our cushion past it is +8.8 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account