Keita Nakajima over Rasmus Hojgaard
Round 1 matchup · Event 557
+100 · FanDuel
Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Sep 17
No PlayWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability51.6%
Market probability48.8%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+2.7 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 51.6% |
| Market probability | 48.8% |
| Difference | +2.7 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.7 pts: our 51.6% against the market’s 48.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.0% expected value a unit at +100
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 15, rank 3 of 1143 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 7d699e59-85f2-4b50-aade-39ce7d89e1ac; draw ef215b77-eeef-4294-9cb0-750538446540
- The market holds the other side at 51.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +100 is 50.0%; our cushion past it is +1.6 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
