Zach Bauchou over Marco Penge

Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 540

-105 · BetMGM

Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Oct 29

No Playpublished for calibration; the blended edge did not clear the staking threshold · see it on the Ledger

Our probability64.3%

Market probability48.6%

Difference+15.7 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	64.3%
Market probability	48.6%
Difference	+15.7 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +15.7 pts: our 64.3% against the market’s 48.6% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.8% expected value a unit at -105
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 14, rank 2 of 1067 priced sides this week; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 1 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 5615c6ab-eb52-4b0d-bbf5-353f798d096d; draw be5eb024-59c6-4821-aee7-4a2e0249d10f

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 51.4%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at -105 is 51.2%; our cushion past it is +13.1 pts
It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.