Zac Blair over Michael Kim
Round 1 matchup · Rocket Classic
+108 · Unibet · 1u
Sealed · 10:05 PM ET, Jul 29
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability53.3%
Market probability48.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+4.5 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 53.3% |
| Market probability | 48.8% |
| Difference | +4.5 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +4.5 pts: our 53.3% against the market’s 48.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -0.6% expected value a unit at +108
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
revision 5, rank 1 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 85e895f2-2ef4-4d16-a46f-e8ff3473131a; draw dd7c9e8d-4228-4fb4-ab19-b8198a3479ed
- The market holds the other side at 51.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +108 is 48.1%; our cushion past it is +5.2 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account