Ryan Fox over Tom Kim
Round 1 matchup · Event 28
+126 · DraftKings
Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Aug 19
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability46.8%
Market probability44.7%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+2.1 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 46.8% |
| Market probability | 44.7% |
| Difference | +2.1 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.1 pts: our 46.8% against the market’s 44.7% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.5% expected value a unit at +126
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 12, rank 3 of 552 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 6 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast d5ce0f30-a5dc-4310-9f31-30366f2ed693; draw dbdd17c0-6653-4608-8998-09f50cb061ed
- The market holds the other side at 55.3%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +126 is 44.2%; our cushion past it is +2.6 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
