C.T. Pan in a 3-ball

Round 1 3-ball v Erik Van Rooyen, Vince Whaley · Event 528

+270 · FanDuel

Sealed · 6:01 PM ET, Oct 20

Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability34.8%

Market probability25.6%

Difference+9.1 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	34.8%
Market probability	25.6%
Difference	+9.1 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +9.1 pts: our 34.8% against the market’s 25.6% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.9% expected value a unit at +270
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 5, rank 1 of 1006 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast ccecd35a-c7e6-45c1-93f2-dc4f9281c4f7; draw eeb15438-8b0a-44ad-9ab9-16bdd68a9dfa

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 74.4%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +270 is 27.0%; our cushion past it is +7.7 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.