Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability48.5%
Market probability42.4%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+6.1 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
48.5%
Market probability
42.4%
Difference
+6.1 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +6.1 pts: our 48.5% against the market’s 42.4% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.5% expected value a unit at +125
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
The golf case
rank 2 of 784 priced sides this week
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
