Seamus Power in a 3-ball

Round 1 3-ball v Matt Wallace, Rico Hoey · Event 554

+240 · FanDuel

Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Sep 30

Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability35.2%

Market probability28.0%

Difference+7.1 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	35.2%
Market probability	28.0%
Difference	+7.1 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +7.1 pts: our 35.2% against the market’s 28.0% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.4% expected value a unit at +240
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 12, rank 5 of 1051 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 6 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast cb1bdd2f-3031-410d-a58f-aa2b2e8e09a2; draw 65d689b4-e103-4417-880a-bf5010c94b7b

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 72.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +240 is 29.4%; our cushion past it is +5.8 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.