Matt McCarty over Matt Fitzpatrick
Round 3 matchup · Event 28
+200 · Caesars · 1u
Sealed · 10:31 PM ET, Aug 21
Staked playLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability37.9%
Market probability34.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+3.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 37.9% |
| Market probability | 34.0% |
| Difference | +3.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +3.9 pts: our 37.9% against the market’s 34.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: 0.2% expected value a unit at +200
- It cleared the stake floor at tier C, 1u
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
daily card r3 revision 1, rank 2 of 90 round-scoped sides; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 1798a062-2bf4-4db3-a8cf-9b18d2c7171b; draw 2ceeda04-26f7-4bd4-8466-7b7c7d11e040
- The market holds the other side at 66.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +200 is 33.3%; our cushion past it is +4.6 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
Account