Michael Kim over Kevin Yu
Tournament matchup, 72 holes · Event 527
+120 · Caesars
Sealed · 9:45 AM ET, Oct 7
No PlayWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability44.3%
Market probability46.8%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−2.4 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 44.3% |
| Market probability | 46.8% |
| Difference | −2.4 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −2.4 pts: our 44.3% against the market’s 46.8% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.6% expected value a unit at +120
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 8, rank 5 of 720 priced sides this week; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 7fa71f3f-3086-4263-b8c4-97aeab98cd17; draw acfb825d-3d7a-4a6d-8935-fc7481f8a715
- The market holds the other side at 53.2%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +120 is 45.5%; our cushion past it is −1.1 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
