Matt Fitzpatrick over Scottie Scheffler

Round 1 matchup · Event 60

+165 · Caesars

Sealed · 5:45 AM ET, Aug 25

Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability41.3%

Market probability36.0%

Difference+5.3 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	41.3%
Market probability	36.0%
Difference	+5.3 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +5.3 pts: our 41.3% against the market’s 36.0% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.7% expected value a unit at +165
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 4, rank 5 of 218 priced sides this week; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast f4ae933e-cc8b-41f9-af28-7a76c5bb1f52; draw c66ed1d4-a432-4a94-8594-62fc591e3d6a

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 64.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +165 is 37.7%; our cushion past it is +3.6 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.