Bill Haas in a 3-ball

Round 1 3-ball v Taylor Pendrith, Davis Riley · Event 528

+360 · FanDuel

Sealed · 11:45 AM ET, Oct 21

Superseded revisionVoid · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability30.7%

Market probability20.1%

Difference+10.6 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	30.7%
Market probability	20.1%
Difference	+10.6 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +10.6 pts: our 30.7% against the market’s 20.1% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -2.4% expected value a unit at +360
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 11, rank 4 of 1078 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 8 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 1665b1b8-f9e7-4b56-925e-b300cd7656cf; draw 4ee5abe5-d868-402e-acf9-ed30387c7c4b

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 79.9%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +360 is 21.7%; our cushion past it is +9.0 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.