Akshay Bhatia over Hideki Matsuyama

Round 1 matchup · Event 60

+135 · BetMGM

Sealed · 8:15 PM ET, Aug 25

Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger

Our probability47.7%

Market probability41.7%

Difference+6.0 ptsModel edge at the seal

The exact sealed values
Our probability	47.7%
Market probability	41.7%
Difference	+6.0 pts

Why this made the card

The raw disagreement is +6.0 pts: our 47.7% against the market’s 41.7% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.3% expected value a unit at +135
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

Published and graded, never staked.

The golf case

revision 7, rank 3 of 254 priced sides this week; sealed at betmgm, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

Technical provenance

forecast 22c431ff-d2d3-4701-8706-97541c2b4339; draw 2190b993-1929-4052-9d7a-ed830455397c

What can beat us

The market holds the other side at 58.3%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
Break-even at +135 is 42.6%; our cushion past it is +5.1 pts
One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.