Chris Kirk over Xander Schauffele
Round 3 matchup · Rocket Classic
+154 · DraftKings
Sealed · 8:15 AM ET, Aug 1
No PlayWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability42.0%
Market probability39.1%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+2.9 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 42.0% |
| Market probability | 39.1% |
| Difference | +2.9 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +2.9 pts: our 42.0% against the market’s 39.1% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -3.7% expected value a unit at +154
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
daily card r3 revision 2, rank 5 of 82 round-scoped sides; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (retail gate 2026-08-01); consensus of 5 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast bc8b3d74-1acb-4557-8074-d5797b9c58ac; draw 2e5c8d92-ee74-451a-b837-e22967368293
- The market holds the other side at 60.9%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +154 is 39.4%; our cushion past it is +2.7 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
