Superseded revisionkept on the ledger forever · see it on the Ledger
Our probability1.1%
Market probability0.6%
The sealed disagreement
Difference+0.4 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 1.1% |
| Market probability | 0.6% |
| Difference | +0.4 pts |
- The raw disagreement is +0.4 pts: our 1.1% against the market’s 0.6% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -23.6% expected value a unit at +17000
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
Published and graded, never staked.
revision 1, rank 4 of 101 priced sides this week; sealed at draftkings, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 7 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 61761071-1706-469d-8bcc-c7beb744e889; draw 20c8ba43-5b0b-4f30-8542-98fc79937363
- The market holds the other side at 99.4%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +17000 is 0.6%; our cushion past it is +0.5 pts
- It settles over the full tournament; a missed cut ends it early and variance runs all four days
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
