Jordan Spieth over Corey Conners
Round 1 matchup · Rocket Classic
+105 · Pinnacle
Sealed · 10:04 PM ET, Jul 29
Superseded revisionLost · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability46.4%
Market probability50.0%
The sealed disagreement
Difference−3.6 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values| Our probability | 46.4% |
| Market probability | 50.0% |
| Difference | −3.6 pts |
- The raw disagreement is −3.6 pts: our 46.4% against the market’s 50.0% with the juice removed
- The edge survives the blend into the market: -1.8% expected value a unit at +105
- It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.
revision 4, rank 3 of 1152 priced sides this week; price is best of 3 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
Technical provenance
forecast 85e895f2-2ef4-4d16-a46f-e8ff3473131a; draw dd7c9e8d-4228-4fb4-ab19-b8198a3479ed
- The market holds the other side at 50.0%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
- Break-even at +105 is 48.8%; our cushion past it is −2.4 pts
- One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong
Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.
