Superseded revisionWon · settled and graded on the ledger · see it on the Ledger
Our probability59.1%
Market probability54.9%
Our number at each sealThe sealed disagreement
Difference+4.2 ptsModel edge at the seal
The exact sealed values
Our probability
59.1%
Market probability
54.9%
Difference
+4.2 pts
Why this made the card
The raw disagreement is +4.2 pts: our 59.1% against the market’s 54.9% with the juice removed
The edge survives the blend into the market: -5.4% expected value a unit at -138
It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked
A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.
Published and graded, never staked.
The golf case
revision 4, rank 3 of 806 priced sides this week; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 1 books
The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.
