Hayden Springer over Eric Cole

• The raw disagreement is +10.1 pts: our 46.5% against the market’s 36.4% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: 1.4% expected value a unit at +175
• It cleared the stake floor at tier B, 1.5u

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

daily card r4 revision 1, rank 1 of 98 round-scoped sides; sealed at caesars, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 3 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 63.6%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at +175 is 36.4%; our cushion past it is +10.1 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.