Kevin Streelman in a 3-ball

• The raw disagreement is +6.6 pts: our 34.8% against the market’s 28.2% with the juice removed
• The edge survives the blend into the market: 1.2% expected value a unit at +270
• It did not clear the stake floor after doubt: published as a No Play, graded, never staked

A big raw disagreement is not automatically a bet. The market gets a vote: after our number is blended into the devigged consensus and charged for doubt, what is left has to carry a full unit. Here it did not, so the pick published as a No Play and is graded for calibration only.

A measured disagreement, sized to the doubt.

daily card r2 revision 1, rank 1 of 140 round-scoped sides; sealed at fanduel, the best major book (major books only, 2026-08-02); consensus of 5 books

The read as sealed, written before the gun and never edited after.

• The market holds the other side at 71.8%; we are the disagreement, not the consensus
• Break-even at +270 is 27.0%; our cushion past it is +7.8 pts
• One round of golf settles it; eighteen holes of variance can erase an edge this size without the number being wrong

Edges this size lose often. The record, not any one pick, is the product.